Market

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

POLITICS

HOLD

Market 1% · Fair 2% · Edge 0.7 pts

5 tracked holders · YES exposure 388 · NO exposure 7835

5 tracked holders, positioning favors NO, 4 YES vs 1 NO positions, fair 2% vs market 1%, tourists (99 score) NO value 7915. YES offers 58.7% expected profit per dollar risked with 7900.0% max profit if correct, or 28.5% annualized. Capital efficiency is not strong enough yet. Lead holder: tourists NO value 7915 with 8023 contracts

Signal history
HOLD
10/17/2026, 4:02:10 PM
Edge 0.7 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 4:01:12 PM
Edge 0.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:59:12 PM
Edge 36.7 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 3:57:13 PM
Edge -0.3 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:55:16 PM
Edge 12.6 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 3:53:12 PM
Edge -0.3 pts · Confidence 35
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:50:10 PM
Edge 30.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:48:10 PM
Edge 30.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:46:10 PM
Edge 30.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:42:10 PM
Edge 37.0 pts · Confidence 100
Current positions
zxdw · NO · score 68
18000 contracts · value 17775 · avg 50.0% · 10/12/2026, 4:10:32 AM
DREAMBIG. · NO · score 45
14000 contracts · value 13825 · avg 50.0% · 10/17/2026, 3:35:13 PM
tourists · NO · score 99
8023 contracts · value 7915 · avg 96.8% · 10/4/2026, 12:49:53 PM
zb8 · NO · score 47
6922 contracts · value 6787 · avg 96.3% · 8/30/2026, 2:41:11 AM
lranon2nd · NO · score 64
6500 contracts · value 6373 · avg 50.0% · 6/1/2026, 8:35:11 PM
operationcastle · NO · score 96
3676 contracts · value 3601 · avg 97.1% · 5/21/2026, 12:25:17 PM
92000 contracts · value 1886 · avg 0.8% · 6/1/2026, 1:09:12 AM
tetrase · YES · score 45
121112 contracts · value 1514 · avg 1.0% · 10/17/2026, 1:41:13 PM
AnonymousUsername · YES · score 49
65013 contracts · value 1268 · avg 0.8% · 8/29/2026, 4:01:09 PM
11122 · YES · score 64
100792 contracts · value 1260 · avg 0.5% · 10/17/2026, 4:01:28 PM
TradeDeficitArchitect · YES · score 45
19163 contracts · value 383 · avg 3.1% · 9/18/2026, 1:25:16 AM
lranon2nd · YES · score 64
16500 contracts · value 322 · avg 32.2% · 6/1/2026, 8:35:11 PM
HerrieDavis · YES · score 73
20000 contracts · value 250 · avg 0.7% · 10/11/2026, 4:14:33 AM
zxdw · YES · score 68
18000 contracts · value 225 · avg 50.0% · 10/12/2026, 4:10:32 AM
DREAMBIG. · YES · score 45
14000 contracts · value 175 · avg 50.0% · 10/17/2026, 3:35:13 PM
Recent trades
tetrase · BUY YES · score 45
5 @ 1.2% · notional 0 · 10/16/2026, 5:56:58 AM
ScottyNooo · BUY YES · score 99
200 @ 1.1% · notional 2 · 9/18/2026, 3:32:48 PM
omnibus-6c8b15 · SELL NO · score 45
7 @ 98.1% · notional 7 · 9/10/2026, 4:35:57 PM
Haradwaith · SELL YES · score 46
25 @ 2.1% · notional 1 · 8/31/2026, 6:17:52 AM
Haradwaith · SELL YES · score 46
14 @ 2.0% · notional 0 · 8/31/2026, 1:31:58 AM
Haradwaith · SELL YES · score 46
9 @ 2.0% · notional 0 · 8/30/2026, 7:10:46 PM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
2 @ 2.8% · notional 0 · 8/21/2026, 4:01:22 AM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
5 @ 2.8% · notional 0 · 8/21/2026, 2:56:39 AM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
107 @ 2.8% · notional 3 · 8/20/2026, 6:33:52 PM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
100 @ 2.8% · notional 3 · 8/20/2026, 2:55:13 PM
255 @ 1.6% · notional 4 · 8/14/2026, 10:28:25 AM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
32 @ 2.0% · notional 1 · 8/7/2026, 5:39:39 PM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
37 @ 2.0% · notional 1 · 8/7/2026, 5:39:28 PM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
2 @ 2.0% · notional 0 · 8/7/2026, 5:39:13 PM
occasionalAwareness · SELL YES · score 99
1 @ 2.0% · notional 0 · 8/7/2026, 5:39:12 PM