Market

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

POLITICS

BUY_YES

Market 14% · Fair 17% · Edge 3.1 pts

3 tracked holders · YES exposure 88098 · NO exposure 494149

3 tracked holders, positioning favors NO, 3 YES vs 1 NO positions, fair 17% vs market 14%, wokerjoesleeper (134 score) NO value 493638. YES offers 21.9% expected profit per dollar risked with 606.7% max profit if correct, or 10.7% annualized. Lead holder: wokerjoesleeper NO value 493638 with 575000 contracts

Signal history
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 4:08:09 PM
Edge 3.1 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 4:06:10 PM
Edge 1.4 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 4:02:10 PM
Edge 0.2 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 4:01:11 PM
Edge 0.2 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:59:11 PM
Edge 3.0 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:57:12 PM
Edge 3.2 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
10/17/2026, 3:55:15 PM
Edge 2.0 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 3:53:12 PM
Edge -3.0 pts · Confidence 35
HOLD
10/17/2026, 3:50:10 PM
Edge 1.9 pts · Confidence 100
HOLD
10/17/2026, 3:48:10 PM
Edge 1.9 pts · Confidence 100
Current positions
rdba · NO · score 74
4014968 contracts · value 3185877 · avg 50.0% · 6/26/2026, 12:05:39 PM
rdba · YES · score 74
4019165 contracts · value 829958 · avg 50.0% · 6/26/2026, 12:05:39 PM
wokerjoesleeper · NO · score 59
575000 contracts · value 493638 · avg 50.0% · 10/17/2026, 4:07:22 PM
HH168 · NO · score 78
535000 contracts · value 449133 · avg 50.0% · 9/17/2026, 12:47:08 PM
gatorr · YES · score 45
353696 contracts · value 88955 · avg 25.7% · 6/6/2026, 12:19:01 AM
HH168 · YES · score 78
535000 contracts · value 85868 · avg 50.0% · 9/17/2026, 12:47:08 PM
wokerjoesleeper · YES · score 59
575169 contracts · value 81386 · avg 50.0% · 10/17/2026, 4:07:22 PM
60520 contracts · value 48567 · avg 65.5% · 7/24/2026, 1:31:19 PM
risk-manager · YES · score 83
107333 contracts · value 25277 · avg 31.6% · 6/20/2026, 4:05:39 AM
rainbowlilies · NO · score 70
26000 contracts · value 22399 · avg 50.0% · 9/12/2026, 8:38:33 AM
Apsalar · NO · score 75
21525 contracts · value 18609 · avg 50.0% · 9/21/2026, 5:42:54 PM
AnonymousUsername · YES · score 49
59329 contracts · value 8514 · avg 42.5% · 8/29/2026, 4:01:09 PM
32501 contracts · value 5184 · avg 24.9% · 9/19/2026, 7:20:41 AM
failstober · YES · score 99
26892 contracts · value 4155 · avg 43.3% · 10/16/2026, 5:36:56 PM
rainbowlilies · YES · score 70
26000 contracts · value 3601 · avg 50.0% · 9/12/2026, 8:38:33 AM
Recent trades
Zzzz87 · BUY YES · score 64
465 @ 15.5% · notional 72 · 10/10/2026, 2:32:22 PM
Zzzz87 · BUY YES · score 64
537 @ 15.5% · notional 83 · 10/10/2026, 7:11:27 AM
Zzzz87 · BUY YES · score 64
300 @ 15.5% · notional 47 · 10/9/2026, 8:04:52 AM
Parz1vaI · SELL YES · score 91
5 @ 16.8% · notional 1 · 10/7/2026, 6:17:01 PM
AJSV · BUY NO · score 63
71 @ 83.8% · notional 59 · 10/1/2026, 7:52:47 PM
AJSV · BUY NO · score 63
71 @ 83.8% · notional 59 · 10/1/2026, 7:52:35 PM
AJSV · BUY NO · score 63
71 @ 83.8% · notional 59 · 10/1/2026, 7:51:59 PM
WarriorH · BUY YES · score 45
176 @ 16.1% · notional 28 · 9/16/2026, 1:35:27 PM
Haradwaith · SELL NO · score 47
10 @ 83.9% · notional 8 · 9/16/2026, 8:25:33 AM
WarriorH · BUY NO · score 45
11 @ 83.8% · notional 9 · 9/16/2026, 7:44:09 AM
Haradwaith · SELL NO · score 47
14 @ 83.7% · notional 11 · 9/16/2026, 2:46:12 AM
WarriorH · BUY NO · score 45
463 @ 82.6% · notional 383 · 9/16/2026, 1:29:43 AM
ArmageddonRewardsBilly · SELL YES · score 45
10318 @ 20.0% · notional 2064 · 9/15/2026, 4:37:03 PM
ImJustKen · SELL YES · score 86
55867 @ 14.9% · notional 8324 · 9/15/2026, 3:58:52 PM
ArmageddonRewardsBilly · SELL YES · score 45
9421 @ 16.0% · notional 1507 · 9/15/2026, 3:58:52 PM