Market
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
POLITICS
BUY_YES
Market 47% · Fair 70% · Edge 23.2 pts
6 tracked holders · YES exposure 365207 · NO exposure 292446
6 tracked holders, positioning favors YES, 6 YES vs 1 NO positions, fair 70% vs market 47%, debased (99 score) NO value 295400. YES offers 49.0% expected profit per dollar risked with 111.6% max profit if correct, or 22.2% annualized. Lead holder: debased NO value 295400 with 560000 contracts
Signal history
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:24:13 PM
Edge 23.2 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:23:12 PM
Edge 23.2 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:22:13 PM
Edge 23.2 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:20:13 PM
Edge 19.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:19:13 PM
Edge 19.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:18:12 PM
Edge 19.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:17:11 PM
Edge 23.2 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:16:15 PM
Edge 19.7 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:14:12 PM
Edge 32.0 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
8/21/2026, 9:13:11 PM
Edge 32.0 pts · Confidence 100
Current positions
debased · NO · score 99
560000 contracts · value 295400 · avg 50.0% · 8/21/2026, 9:19:02 PM
debased · YES · score 99
560000 contracts · value 264600 · avg 50.0% · 8/21/2026, 9:19:02 PM
Nooserac · NO · score 96
400000 contracts · value 211000 · avg 50.0% · 8/20/2026, 7:59:03 PM
Nooserac · YES · score 96
400000 contracts · value 189000 · avg 50.0% · 8/20/2026, 7:59:03 PM
AgricultureSecretary · NO · score 46
203609 contracts · value 107404 · avg 50.0% · 8/21/2026, 8:49:06 PM
Brokie · YES · score 96
320828 contracts · value 103788 · avg 49.2% · 5/30/2026, 2:52:03 AM
AgricultureSecretary · YES · score 46
203609 contracts · value 96205 · avg 50.0% · 8/21/2026, 8:49:06 PM
GCottrell93 · YES · score 99
146779 contracts · value 69353 · avg 48.7% · 8/21/2026, 9:09:06 PM
PantheraUncia · YES · score 49
114005 contracts · value 43037 · avg 35.4% · 6/28/2026, 11:35:43 AM
wan123 · YES · score 45
65278 contracts · value 30844 · avg 37.4% · 8/21/2026, 9:21:04 PM
chungguskhan · YES · score 96
59960 contracts · value 28331 · avg 38.1% · 8/21/2026, 9:03:02 PM
100x · YES · score 45
69285 contracts · value 25185 · avg 39.8% · 5/19/2026, 11:36:18 PM
Eatpraylove · YES · score 96
64654 contracts · value 24277 · avg 38.0% · 5/8/2026, 3:37:18 PM
ScottyNooo · YES · score 45
49211 contracts · value 23301 · avg 44.6% · 8/21/2026, 1:59:07 PM
11122 · YES · score 96
41561 contracts · value 19638 · avg 41.7% · 8/21/2026, 5:27:10 PM
Recent trades
11122 · SELL YES · score 96
1369 @ 47.4% · notional 649 · 8/21/2026, 12:33:04 AM
11122 · SELL YES · score 96
1631 @ 47.4% · notional 773 · 8/21/2026, 12:04:39 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
239 @ 42.7% · notional 102 · 8/13/2026, 12:14:16 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
349 @ 42.7% · notional 149 · 8/13/2026, 12:14:13 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
350 @ 42.7% · notional 149 · 8/13/2026, 12:14:06 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
37 @ 42.7% · notional 16 · 8/13/2026, 12:12:58 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
75 @ 42.7% · notional 32 · 8/13/2026, 12:12:57 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
50 @ 42.7% · notional 21 · 8/13/2026, 12:12:54 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
50 @ 42.7% · notional 21 · 8/13/2026, 12:12:52 AM
failstober · BUY YES · score 96
3093 @ 42.7% · notional 1321 · 8/7/2026, 6:48:25 AM
failstober · SELL YES · score 96
3333 @ 48.9% · notional 1630 · 8/6/2026, 12:53:36 PM
failstober · SELL YES · score 96
4259 @ 46.9% · notional 1997 · 8/6/2026, 12:53:15 PM
failstober · SELL YES · score 96
92 @ 46.9% · notional 43 · 8/6/2026, 12:52:50 PM
failstober · SELL YES · score 96
4 @ 46.9% · notional 2 · 8/6/2026, 11:03:02 AM
failstober · SELL YES · score 96
89 @ 46.9% · notional 42 · 8/6/2026, 10:51:26 AM