Market

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

POLITICS

BUY_YES

Market 21% · Fair 26% · Edge 5.8 pts

4 tracked holders · YES exposure 52947 · NO exposure 233681

4 tracked holders, positioning favors NO, 2 YES vs 3 NO positions, fair 26% vs market 21%, tf2 (196 score) NO value 198719. YES offers 27.9% expected profit per dollar risked with 384.3% max profit if correct, or 11.8% annualized. Lead holder: tf2 NO value 198719 with 250433 contracts

Signal history
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:41:49 AM
Edge 5.8 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:40:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:39:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:38:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:37:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:36:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:35:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:34:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:33:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
BUY_YES
6/30/2026, 6:32:49 AM
Edge 7.1 pts · Confidence 100
Current positions
poorsob · NO · score 90
7313063 contracts · value 5934550 · avg 50.0% · 5/24/2026, 1:14:45 AM
GamblingIsAllYouNeed · NO · score 99
3239996 contracts · value 2570937 · avg 50.0% · 6/30/2026, 6:41:56 AM
elmcap2 · NO · score 49
2000000 contracts · value 1615000 · avg 50.0% · 6/28/2026, 12:05:40 PM
poorsob · YES · score 90
7313063 contracts · value 1378512 · avg 50.0% · 5/24/2026, 1:14:45 AM
1308158 contracts · value 1038023 · avg 50.0% · 6/30/2026, 6:25:41 AM
BrightStars · NO · score 64
873550 contracts · value 705392 · avg 50.0% · 6/28/2026, 3:45:42 PM
GamblingIsAllYouNeed · YES · score 99
3239996 contracts · value 669059 · avg 50.0% · 6/30/2026, 6:41:56 AM
elmcap2 · YES · score 49
2000000 contracts · value 385000 · avg 50.0% · 6/28/2026, 12:05:40 PM
WordleAddict · NO · score 45
450000 contracts · value 363375 · avg 50.0% · 6/28/2026, 9:29:44 AM
Car · NO · score 49
355556 contracts · value 287111 · avg 50.0% · 6/28/2026, 2:53:40 PM
1308158 contracts · value 270135 · avg 50.0% · 6/30/2026, 6:25:41 AM
tf2 · NO · score 71
250433 contracts · value 198719 · avg 50.0% · 6/30/2026, 6:41:49 AM
BrightStars · YES · score 64
873550 contracts · value 168158 · avg 50.0% · 6/28/2026, 3:45:42 PM
11122 · NO · score 68
210356 contracts · value 166917 · avg 59.9% · 6/30/2026, 6:41:53 AM
hansama31 · NO · score 64
154312 contracts · value 125533 · avg 50.0% · 5/21/2026, 10:19:16 PM
Recent trades
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
22 @ 19.7% · notional 4 · 6/27/2026, 1:29:31 AM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
56 @ 19.7% · notional 11 · 6/27/2026, 12:27:07 AM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
260 @ 19.7% · notional 51 · 6/26/2026, 11:22:46 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
254 @ 19.7% · notional 50 · 6/26/2026, 10:47:40 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
5 @ 19.7% · notional 1 · 6/26/2026, 10:38:20 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
36 @ 19.7% · notional 7 · 6/26/2026, 9:38:59 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
25 @ 19.7% · notional 5 · 6/26/2026, 9:38:44 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
10 @ 19.7% · notional 2 · 6/26/2026, 7:58:22 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
25 @ 19.7% · notional 5 · 6/26/2026, 7:56:04 PM
ArmageddonRewardsBilly · SELL NO · score 49
5 @ 80.5% · notional 4 · 6/26/2026, 8:41:53 AM
ArmageddonRewardsBilly · SELL NO · score 49
10 @ 80.5% · notional 8 · 6/26/2026, 8:29:31 AM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
5 @ 20.6% · notional 1 · 6/25/2026, 1:38:50 PM
alwayslatetotheparty · SELL YES · score 65
5 @ 20.6% · notional 1 · 6/25/2026, 10:30:37 AM
woshiLimpeh · BUY YES · score 53
953 @ 20.0% · notional 191 · 6/24/2026, 6:36:19 AM
woshiLimpeh · BUY YES · score 53
2899 @ 20.0% · notional 580 · 6/24/2026, 5:30:38 AM